报告题目：Predicting and controlling the dynamics of infectious diseases
报告人：Musa Mammadov 博士
Doctor Musa Mammadov is a Senior Research Fellow at the Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University of Australia. He obtained his MSc degree in Mathematics from Baku State University (Azerbaijan), PhD in Mathematics from St. Petersburg State University (Russia) and PhD in Mathematics&IT from Federation University Australia. His main research interests lie in the optimal control theory (asymptotic stability of optimal trajectories) and optimization (theory and numerical methods) with a strong emphasis on practical applications. He serves as Associate editor for two international journals “Optimization Letters” and “Annals of Data Science”.
In this talk we introduce a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. All the preventive measures aim to decrease the average time of isolation under given constraints. This approach is developed on the basis of data from the Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014-2015. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average time of infectiousness that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide.